AI Burn-Rate & Budget Blowout Forecaster
Per-token prices fell, but your agents repeat queries and the bill keeps climbing. Enter five numbers and find the month you blow your AI budget — and whether to hold pace, trim now, or cap before it runs away.
“We're fine this month” is exactly how teams end up 3x over budget by Q3. This does the compounding math so you see it coming in month four, not month eleven.
instant download · .xlsx · yours to keep
The problem
The token bill comes due — and it's 3x what you budgeted.
Most teams set an AI budget once, then watch the monthly bill creep up and assume the headroom will last. It won't: agentic tools repeat queries in sequence and consumption compounds, so a line that looks comfortable in month four crosses the budget in month nine. The fix isn't a bigger spreadsheet of past spend — it's a projection of where the trajectory ends, while you still have months to act.
Try it
Enter five numbers. Watch headroom-today turn into BLOWOUT AHEAD.
Projected annual spend
$166,687
Over budget by
$46,687 (39%)
Blowout month
month 11 of 12
Same numbers, same verdict, every time — deterministic and offline (as of 2026-06-25). Bring your own numbers; it never invents any. Not financial, accounting, or tax advice.
The standard
Honest about what the number means.
Trajectory, not today
The runaway-growth gate judges where your spend finishes, not where it sits this month. Headroom today doesn't clear a line headed over budget.
Your numbers, no fudge
The verdict comes entirely from the five numbers you enter. There's no baked-in benchmark and no invented growth rate — bring your own and it never invents any.
Models, doesn't meter
It models the trajectory you describe. It doesn't read your invoices, connect to a provider, or move money, and nothing is uploaded.
How it works
Five numbers, one projection, one decision.
- 1Pull your current monthly AI spend and roughly how fast it's grown month over month.
- 2Enter your annual AI budget, how many months you're into the budget year, and what you've spent so far.
- 3The 12-month projection compounds your spend and finds the month it crosses the budget.
- 4Read the verdict — ON BUDGET, TRIM NOW, or BLOWOUT AHEAD — and the monthly cap that lands you back on budget.
What you'll see
A blowout month and the exact cap to avoid it.
The forecast
Projected annual spend, the over/under against budget, the blowout month, and whether the runaway-growth gate fired.
The cap
The flat monthly spend for your remaining months that lands you exactly on budget — and how far that is below your current run-rate.
Who it's for
For anyone who owns an AI line item that keeps climbing.
For you if
- Your AI or token bill has crept up and you set the budget months ago.
- You want to know if you'll blow the budget before you actually do.
- You're a founder, ops lead, or finance owner deciding whether to cap usage.
Not for you if
- You want to value the spend you already have — use the AI ROI Tracker.
- You want a seat-by-seat audit of paid vs used licenses — use the AI & SaaS Subscription Auditor.
- You want model-routing and caching optimization — use the Token Economics Workbook.
Common questions
Straight answers before you buy.
Enter five numbers — your current monthly AI spend, how fast it's grown month over month, your annual budget, how many months you're into the year, and what you've spent so far — and the AI Burn-Rate & Budget Blowout Forecaster projects your spend forward across the budget year and names the exact month your cumulative spend crosses the budget. If the trajectory never crosses, it says so.
Because AI spend compounds. A runaway-growth gate judges where your trajectory finishes, not where it sits this month — so a line that looks comfortable in month four can be headed more than 20% over budget by year-end. When that happens the verdict can't read ON BUDGET no matter how much headroom you have right now. That's the whole point: it shows you the blowout in month four, while you still have months to act.
ON BUDGET means your projected annual spend lands at or under budget. TRIM NOW means you finish over budget but within the gate margin — a course-correction, not a crisis. BLOWOUT AHEAD means the runaway-growth gate fired: your trajectory finishes far enough over budget that you need to cap now. Every verdict also reports your blowout month and the flat monthly cap that lands you back on budget.
No. It models the trajectory from the numbers you enter — it never reads bills, connects to a provider, or moves money, and nothing is uploaded. The verdict comes entirely from your five inputs, with no baked-in benchmark and no invented growth rate. Same numbers, same verdict, every time.
Different jobs. The AI ROI Tracker ($49) values the spend you already have — keep, expand, or kill — looking backward. The AI & SaaS Subscription Auditor ($49) does a seat-level paid-vs-used audit. The Token Economics Workbook ($59) is engineering optimization — model routing and caching to lower the per-call cost. This Forecaster is the only one that projects your AI spend trajectory forward to find the blowout month and the cap to avoid it.
One .xlsx with three tabs — Start Here, Forecaster, and Dashboard — that opens in Excel, Google Sheets, or Numbers. It's deterministic and offline: no add-ins, no macros, no internet. A worked example comes pre-filled so you can see the projection working, then overwrite it with your own numbers. It's a planning aid, not financial, accounting, or tax advice.
Forecasting burn is step one; watching it live is the cockpit. Cash-Flow Sentinel reads your actual numbers and flags a runway risk weeks out — the founder-grade Executive Suite. $249.
Get the Forecaster
See the blowout coming.
- 12-month compounding projection + the runaway-growth gate.
- Names your blowout month and the cap to avoid it.
- One .xlsx, yours to keep, 12 months of updates.
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