How the roll-up gate works

How the Supplier Lead-Time Honesty gate works

This tool grades each supplier's quoted vs. actual lead times across every receipt on file, then rolls them up into a shop-wide read. It reads 5 suppliers and rolls them into one verdict — the worst, never the average — then a gate that can only make it worse.

The 5 suppliers

01Precision Castingsfix first5/5 receipts late, median slip +13 days beyond a 3-day window - optimistic quotes, not noiseCHRONICALLY LATE

02Coastal Bar Stock2/5 receipts late (40%), median slip +1 day - erratic scheduling, not a quoting patternCHRONICALLY LATE

03Apex Platingonly 2 receipts on file - below the 4-line minimum, held out of the shop-wide readNOT ENOUGH DATA

04Ferrous Alloys Co0/5 receipts late, median slip +1 day - quotes holdDELIVERS AS QUOTED

05Northgate Fasteners0/4 receipts late, median slip -4.5 days - pads every quote by 4 to 5 days you finance on every PODELIVERS AS QUOTED

QUOTES YOU CAN PLAN ON

10% or less of scored receipts arrive late

SOME QUOTES ARE THEATER

11-35% of scored receipts arrive late

QUOTED FICTION

over 35% of scored receipts arrive late - or any supplier is both CHRONICALLY LATE and quoting OPTIMISTIC

Quoted-fiction gate · worsen-only

A supplier that's both CHRONICALLY LATE (over 35% of receipts late) and OPTIMISTIC QUOTES (median slip at or beyond its own promised window) forces the shop verdict to QUOTED FICTION - a pattern, not noise.

QUOTED FICTION

Why: Shop-wide, 37% of scored receipts arrive late - already past the 35% QUOTED FICTION line on its own. Precision Castings alone is 5-for-5 late with a median 13-day slip beyond its own promised window, and the gate would force this verdict even at a cleaner shop average. 37% of 19 scored receipts late across 4 scored suppliers (Apex Plating held out - only 2 receipts) - 1 supplier gated.

Fix firstPrecision Castings - 5/5 late, median slip +13 days beyond a 3-day window

No single supplier is the crisis — the clustering is. The roll-up takes the worst, the gate escalates when trouble compounds, and it names the one thing to fix first. Grades your own receipt history - a planning aid, not a legal, contractual, or procurement-compliance guarantee.

RedHub AIthe AI that tells you when to doubt it redhub.ai/systems/supplier-lead-time-honesty-scorecard