How the roll-up gate works
This tool grades one spare's stockout risk — the gap between its replenishment lead time and the downtime you can tolerate on the asset it protects. It reads 4 risk signals and rolls them into one verdict — the worst, never the average — then a gate that can only make it worse.
The 4 risk signals
When all four are true at once — a criticality-A asset, nothing on hand or order, no qualified substitute, and a lead time past tolerable downtime — the base severity escalates to SINGLE-FAILURE RISK: one failure downs the line with no recovery path inside the window you can absorb. It releases the moment any single leg clears.
Why: This spare serves a criticality-A asset and every protective leg is gone: nothing on hand, nothing on order, no qualified substitute, and a 182-day lead against just 3 days of tolerable downtime. On the factors alone it reads HIGH — but with all four legs absent at once, the cascade gate escalates it to SINGLE-FAILURE RISK. One failure downs the line with no recovery path.
No single signal is the crisis — the clustering is. The roll-up takes the worst, the gate escalates when trouble compounds, and it names the one thing to fix first. Grades a spare's stockout risk, never a person or a named supplier. Deterministic and offline — your storeroom data, no benchmark. Not procurement, financial, or engineering advice.