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Tool Gate · How it works

How the roll-up gate works

How the Critical-Spares Stockout Watchtower works

This tool grades one spare's stockout risk — the gap between its replenishment lead time and the downtime you can tolerate on the asset it protects. It reads 4 risk signals and rolls them into one verdict — the worst, never the average — then a gate that can only make it worse.

The 4 risk signals

01Asset criticality · A (line-down / safety)top tier — a stockout stops the lineCRIT-A
02Lead time vs tolerable downtime182d lead vs 3d tolerable · +179d overEXCEEDS
03Qualified substituteno fallback part on fileNONE
04Effective supply · on hand + on orderfix first0 on hand, 0 on orderZERO
LOW
a stockout is absorbable — minor asset, or a substitute and a lead inside tolerable downtime
MODERATE
worth watching — some exposure, but a protective leg still holds
HIGH
a stockout would hurt — high criticality or a lead past tolerable downtime, one leg still clears
SINGLE-FAILURE RISK
crit-A asset, nothing on hand or order, no substitute, lead past tolerable downtime
Single-failure cascade · worsen-only

When all four are true at once — a criticality-A asset, nothing on hand or order, no qualified substitute, and a lead time past tolerable downtime — the base severity escalates to SINGLE-FAILURE RISK: one failure downs the line with no recovery path inside the window you can absorb. It releases the moment any single leg clears.

SINGLE-FAILURE RISK

Why: This spare serves a criticality-A asset and every protective leg is gone: nothing on hand, nothing on order, no qualified substitute, and a 182-day lead against just 3 days of tolerable downtime. On the factors alone it reads HIGH — but with all four legs absent at once, the cascade gate escalates it to SINGLE-FAILURE RISK. One failure downs the line with no recovery path. coverage UNPROTECTED · base severity HIGH, cascade escalates · +179d over tolerable.

Fix firstEffective supply is 0 — nothing on hand or on order — so placing the order is the fastest leg to clear. The gate releases the moment supply, a qualified substitute, or a shorter lead brings any single leg back inside the tolerable window.

No single signal is the crisis — the clustering is. The roll-up takes the worst, the gate escalates when trouble compounds, and it names the one thing to fix first. Grades a spare's stockout risk, never a person or a named supplier. Deterministic and offline — your storeroom data, no benchmark. Not procurement, financial, or engineering advice.